I've just had a Marketing Science paper accepted to a conference that is happening later this year.
Abstract is:
Predicting the Performance of Digital Advertising
Andrew Prendergast
Ex. Google, Nielsen//NetRatings, BBDO.A first principles exploration of ethically sound, privacy-preserving simulation, prediction and evaluation of campaign optimization in a digital advertising setting, including publication and description of a number of anonymised paid advertising datasets from search and display campaigns across a multitude of clients.
We analysed the practical application of performance marketing by a digital media buying team in a large advertising agency and explored challenges faced by the business school graduate level campaign analysts in predicting performance of digital advertising transacted in Vickery, silent bid and private deal settings, and explored the utility of truthful and non-truthful bidding WRT risk preferences. Our study focuses on micro-conversion based ROI optimization of direct-response search and display activity, but found that the techniques developed are also applicable to “above the line” branding focused digital campaigns. We then rigorously executed several multi-million dollar search campaigns using the developed techniques and validated the Vickery hypothesis that accurate assessment of placement valuations and truthful bidding maximises long run expected utility and campaign optimization stability.
The techniques presented include a practical approach to placement valuation & bidding which uses a simple Bayesian prior and can be calculated in Excel. We compare it’s predictive performance to more exotic models using a “poor-mans-simulation” ML model evaluation technique and find the results are competitive. The evaluation technique is presented and we demonstrate its apriori simulation of future campaign performance from past ad-server data collected aposteriori. A selection of datasets to aid in replication and improvement of our experimental results are also provided.
... and I'll finally be finishing off this old blog post series on bidding.
Should be a good show. More details to follow.